Brendan Harris had a nice night during yesterday's weird loss, going three for four. He's batting .467 in eleven at-bats. With Ben Zobrist hitting .170 in fifty-seven times up, one wonders if Harris should get a shot at the shortstop job. Apparently, I wasn't the only person asking this question, as the discussion appeared on D-Rays Bay today.
Obviously, the sample size is too small for us to infer anything from Harris' results thus far. Zobrist's sample size, however, is growing, and he hasn't been impressive. Interestingly, PECOTA projects the current shortstop at .279/.348/.395 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage). These numbers would be more than adequate, especially considering that Zobrist is likely a stopgap until the Longoria/Brignac era commences.
Problem is, he hasn't shown anything close to the ability to achieve those projections, hitting more like a utility infielder than a starter. PECOTA forecasts Harris at more reserve-appropriate .259/.314/.390. So, according to minor league history and projected ability, Joe has the right guy in there, for now.
It seems to make sense, then, to give Zobrist a little more time, though certainly not in the two-hole. His on-base percentage is a stunningly low .170 right now. It won't remain quite that bad, but the number is poison near the top of such a potent lineup. Seems to me he should be hitting eighth or ninth until he finds himself.
Showing posts with label The Roster Project. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Roster Project. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Notes on the Twins Series
You have to like Rocco Baldelli's take on the lackluster effort Saturday night. His words were evidence of a team focus on accountability. Who knows what that debacle was about; perhaps after two draining games, one a crushing loss and the other a thrilling victory, the young team simply lost focus. For three other games, though, the Rays played the Twins with intensity, never looking as overmatched as they have in the Metrodome recently. Today's scrappy ninth inning against Joe Nathan showed impressive spirit.
The bullpen was to the Rays this past week as Don Imus was to the rest of the country: a irritating, complex topic that would not go away. Mark Lancaster provided a nice summary in today's Tribune. I agree with his take on Lidge versus Hermanson: if you're going to gamble on a fading closer, you may as well go with the one who can be bought, rather than traded for. Of course, Lidge is a far superior pitcher to Hermanson right now, but not worth the sacrifice when Al Reyes is getting outs. Hermanson would be Moneyball- style low-risk acquisition, like Reyes. Why not?
I enjoyed Patrick Kennedy's take on the same topic at D-Rays Bay.
Kennedy also mentions, by way of Marc Topkin, the Devil Rays' improved television ratings so far this season. We haven't yet discussed Sternberg and Matt Silverman's marketing efforts, focused as we've been on the roster. The ratings increase is evidence that some of the new ideas are taking hold. Between expanding to the Orlando market and making the Trop a more pleasant place to watch games, the team's PR face lift is another interesting topic. When Silverman and Friedman went door-to-door two winters ago, you knew they were not only committed, but different. Plans to make the Rays more economically feasible in Florida will only help them field a competitive team.
The bullpen was to the Rays this past week as Don Imus was to the rest of the country: a irritating, complex topic that would not go away. Mark Lancaster provided a nice summary in today's Tribune. I agree with his take on Lidge versus Hermanson: if you're going to gamble on a fading closer, you may as well go with the one who can be bought, rather than traded for. Of course, Lidge is a far superior pitcher to Hermanson right now, but not worth the sacrifice when Al Reyes is getting outs. Hermanson would be Moneyball- style low-risk acquisition, like Reyes. Why not?
I enjoyed Patrick Kennedy's take on the same topic at D-Rays Bay.
Kennedy also mentions, by way of Marc Topkin, the Devil Rays' improved television ratings so far this season. We haven't yet discussed Sternberg and Matt Silverman's marketing efforts, focused as we've been on the roster. The ratings increase is evidence that some of the new ideas are taking hold. Between expanding to the Orlando market and making the Trop a more pleasant place to watch games, the team's PR face lift is another interesting topic. When Silverman and Friedman went door-to-door two winters ago, you knew they were not only committed, but different. Plans to make the Rays more economically feasible in Florida will only help them field a competitive team.
Thursday, April 12, 2007
How Do You Build a Bullpen Anyway?
Al Reyes did a nice job closing last night; before the game, with all the emotion swirling around relief pitching, I had already been thinking about addressing the broader question of how to construct a bullpen. This seems to be among the most difficult holes to plug in a roster. Teams always identify the need for more relief help, set out to solve the problem, and fail. Why is it so hard?
Since our project here is to analyze how a team is built, and our team, the Devil Rays, is having major bullpen issues, this seems to be the dilemma of the moment.
Many organizations have attempted to fill their pen by throwing money into it. The Yankees have fallen victim to this temptation in recent years before shifting their focus. In 2001, they signed middle reliever Steve Karsay to a huge and disastrous contract, during which the pitcher was rarely healthy and never effective. Two years later, they brought in Tom Gordon to pitch the eighth inning. Flash did well for the Yanks, but wasn't able to help the team get the ring for which he was searching.
This past offseason, the Orioles have taken a similar approach, heaping millions on veterans Chad Bradford, Jamie Walker, and Danys Baez. Early returns are decent, but probably won't ultimately lift the team out of fourth place. One wonders it was the wisest way for the team to spend Peter Angelos' money.
The problem with using free agency to build a bullpen is the unpredictability of relievers. It is rare for a setup man or closer to experience sustained success over many seasons. Often, relievers burn brightly but quickly, and are sliding--or racing--downhill by the time they hit free agency.
Another approach, which our first example, the Yankees, have switched to, is to develop relievers as starters and then convert them. This, remember, is how they found Mariano Rivera. The Sheffield and Johnson trades stuffed that organization with many arms. Some of these guys will pitch effectively in the middle innings of Yankee games later this year and next. Right now, the Yankees have Sean Henn and Scott Proctor, both of whom were originally starters, pitching decently in relief.
On to the Rays. There are quality arms in Durham right now who may eventually find a home in the Tampa bullpen. And, as I've suggested before, the surplus of outfielders can be exchanged for some arms.
The one bad idea I've heard lately: acquiring Brad Lidge. When you have arms, good draft position, and a tiny payroll, it is a mistake to sacrifice anything for a declining reliever. Lidge's flame seems to be flickering, and the team would have to give up too much to get him.
We started this column with Al Reyes, and we'll circle back around to that. He represents a promising, Billy Beane-style approach to fixing the bullpen. Moneyball is really just about finding players who are overlooked or undervalued by the market. Reyes is a classic example. He was pretty effective for the Cardinals a few years ago before joining the Tommy John club. Considering the high recovery rate of that surgery, Reyes may well be a find. This is evidence that Friedman is paying attention, and will fix this problem as intelligently as his budget allows. But then, maybe budget isn't the solution for this particular dilemma, anyway.
Buster Olney was also talking bullpens today. You need an ESPN account to view this, but it is well worth reading if you have one.
With Fossum starting tonight, check out my previous post on him, if you haven't seen it.
Since our project here is to analyze how a team is built, and our team, the Devil Rays, is having major bullpen issues, this seems to be the dilemma of the moment.
Many organizations have attempted to fill their pen by throwing money into it. The Yankees have fallen victim to this temptation in recent years before shifting their focus. In 2001, they signed middle reliever Steve Karsay to a huge and disastrous contract, during which the pitcher was rarely healthy and never effective. Two years later, they brought in Tom Gordon to pitch the eighth inning. Flash did well for the Yanks, but wasn't able to help the team get the ring for which he was searching.
This past offseason, the Orioles have taken a similar approach, heaping millions on veterans Chad Bradford, Jamie Walker, and Danys Baez. Early returns are decent, but probably won't ultimately lift the team out of fourth place. One wonders it was the wisest way for the team to spend Peter Angelos' money.
The problem with using free agency to build a bullpen is the unpredictability of relievers. It is rare for a setup man or closer to experience sustained success over many seasons. Often, relievers burn brightly but quickly, and are sliding--or racing--downhill by the time they hit free agency.
Another approach, which our first example, the Yankees, have switched to, is to develop relievers as starters and then convert them. This, remember, is how they found Mariano Rivera. The Sheffield and Johnson trades stuffed that organization with many arms. Some of these guys will pitch effectively in the middle innings of Yankee games later this year and next. Right now, the Yankees have Sean Henn and Scott Proctor, both of whom were originally starters, pitching decently in relief.
On to the Rays. There are quality arms in Durham right now who may eventually find a home in the Tampa bullpen. And, as I've suggested before, the surplus of outfielders can be exchanged for some arms.
The one bad idea I've heard lately: acquiring Brad Lidge. When you have arms, good draft position, and a tiny payroll, it is a mistake to sacrifice anything for a declining reliever. Lidge's flame seems to be flickering, and the team would have to give up too much to get him.
We started this column with Al Reyes, and we'll circle back around to that. He represents a promising, Billy Beane-style approach to fixing the bullpen. Moneyball is really just about finding players who are overlooked or undervalued by the market. Reyes is a classic example. He was pretty effective for the Cardinals a few years ago before joining the Tommy John club. Considering the high recovery rate of that surgery, Reyes may well be a find. This is evidence that Friedman is paying attention, and will fix this problem as intelligently as his budget allows. But then, maybe budget isn't the solution for this particular dilemma, anyway.
Buster Olney was also talking bullpens today. You need an ESPN account to view this, but it is well worth reading if you have one.
With Fossum starting tonight, check out my previous post on him, if you haven't seen it.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Breaking Down the Bullpen Problem
Mark Lancaster said it in the Tribune this morning: the bullpen narrative is already becoming old. You could see it on Jim Hickey’s face last night in the sixth, when Shawn Camp was in the middle of his nightmare. The new pitching coach rolled his eyes, cursed, bolted out to the mound and said something sharp. He must have been thinking: what do we have to do to hold a lead?
It would be easy to gripe about the problems, though; let’s take the opportunity to think about how a team can solve this particular issue. First, looking at Camp and Ruddy Lugo, who have been ineffective this year: can these guys develop any further to eventually become reliable? Their PECOTA projections at Baseball Prospectus seem to think they can be decent, at least (Camp, Lugo). Maddon sounded supportive but noncommittal last night (his quote in every story has two elements: one, “I’m going to keep talking to these guys,” seemed hopeful, while the other, “That’s who we’ve got, that’s what we’re going to work with,” may have betrayed some frustration.)
How do you work with this bullpen problem during a season? It seems as if Maddon and Hickey plan to continue with the current relief corps, but there is the possibility of eventually replacing them. The Durham Bulls have received three consecutive impressive starts, from Jason Hammel, J.P. Howell, and, last night, from Mitch Talbot. Seth McClung and Chad Orvella are also on the Triple-A staff. When does it become time to try out some new arms in St. Petersburg?
The story to watch here is whether Friedman and Maddon make major adjustments to the pen during the season. If they sense a need—in terms of fan interest and player buy-in—for a significantly improved record this year, they may need to tinker.
Interesting take on the bullpen situation today at Rays Index.
And now, something more positive:
Jackson did struggle with his command last night, and ended up a ball/strike ratio that was less than stellar. He also, however, pitched significantly better than his line in the box score. In addition to pumping a mid-nineties fastball and generally effective slider, Jackson seemed composed and confident. Remember, the game was tied when he left with two outs in the sixth. Had Shawn Camp been able to get an out, Jackson’s impressive outing would have been the story.
“Nice job,” Maddon said when took the ball from his starter. Jackson may not have heard him, as he began walking toward the dugout.
Maddon stopped the pitcher, looked him in the eye, and said again, “Nice job.” He wanted the praise to be heard and noted. Jackson thanked him and jogged to the bench, where he sat and smiled. He beamed for a few minutes, satisfied with the knowledge that his development was moving in the right direction. The smile, of course, had faded entirely by the time the score was 8-2.
One more thing: Jorge Cantu started at first base for Durham last night. A future power hitting corner infielder for the Rays?
It would be easy to gripe about the problems, though; let’s take the opportunity to think about how a team can solve this particular issue. First, looking at Camp and Ruddy Lugo, who have been ineffective this year: can these guys develop any further to eventually become reliable? Their PECOTA projections at Baseball Prospectus seem to think they can be decent, at least (Camp, Lugo). Maddon sounded supportive but noncommittal last night (his quote in every story has two elements: one, “I’m going to keep talking to these guys,” seemed hopeful, while the other, “That’s who we’ve got, that’s what we’re going to work with,” may have betrayed some frustration.)
How do you work with this bullpen problem during a season? It seems as if Maddon and Hickey plan to continue with the current relief corps, but there is the possibility of eventually replacing them. The Durham Bulls have received three consecutive impressive starts, from Jason Hammel, J.P. Howell, and, last night, from Mitch Talbot. Seth McClung and Chad Orvella are also on the Triple-A staff. When does it become time to try out some new arms in St. Petersburg?
The story to watch here is whether Friedman and Maddon make major adjustments to the pen during the season. If they sense a need—in terms of fan interest and player buy-in—for a significantly improved record this year, they may need to tinker.
Interesting take on the bullpen situation today at Rays Index.
And now, something more positive:
Jackson did struggle with his command last night, and ended up a ball/strike ratio that was less than stellar. He also, however, pitched significantly better than his line in the box score. In addition to pumping a mid-nineties fastball and generally effective slider, Jackson seemed composed and confident. Remember, the game was tied when he left with two outs in the sixth. Had Shawn Camp been able to get an out, Jackson’s impressive outing would have been the story.
“Nice job,” Maddon said when took the ball from his starter. Jackson may not have heard him, as he began walking toward the dugout.
Maddon stopped the pitcher, looked him in the eye, and said again, “Nice job.” He wanted the praise to be heard and noted. Jackson thanked him and jogged to the bench, where he sat and smiled. He beamed for a few minutes, satisfied with the knowledge that his development was moving in the right direction. The smile, of course, had faded entirely by the time the score was 8-2.
One more thing: Jorge Cantu started at first base for Durham last night. A future power hitting corner infielder for the Rays?
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