Everything Lost But The Memory

It was a good pitch, down, and Victor Martinez put it on the ground. This was what Brian Stokes wanted. With two on and one out in the ninth, Rays leading by two, it was almost the double play that capped a heartening win. It was almost two of three from the Indians and a masterful victory for James Shields, a save for Stokes.

But it was none of those things: it was a single, it got through the middle, it led to Stokes' complete unraveling, and it took away all the good that had seemed, by the ninth, to be guaranteed.

What an afternoon it had been: with the exception of one mistake that Jhonny Peralta turned into a two-run homer, Shields was not only dominating, but smart. He used his changeup as a knockout punch against a powerful lineup, striking out batters named Hafner and Martinez with slow tosses. The change was his theme, the curve a variation, the fastball an occasional surprise. In the end, he'd gone eight and tied a team record with twelve strikeouts while working almost exclusively in the mid-to high eighties and lower.

When he left, though, he hadn't been quite enough: the game was tied at two.

Cue the offense, and some luck, in the bottom of the eighth. After Aki Iwamura walked, Dioner Navarro bunted toward first. Jake Westbrook, also superb enough to be pitching that late, waited for it to go foul. Instead, it died on the line. Two on. No outs. Westbrook gone.

B. J. Upton stepped in and roped a single up the middle, scoring Iwamura. He stood on first, having broken the tie and virtually assured a happy story for the day. A few minutes later, Navarro scored on a wild pitch, and the narrative seemed clinched. There was a big-ish crowd cheering, a growing sense of possibility, a visit from the Yankees coming tomorrow. There was a sense that with this series win, the Rays could hang with the tough teams now.

When Stokes hit Grady Sizemore to begin the ninth, it felt like no big deal, considering the insurance run. When Jason Michaels flied out, all seemed back in order. Hafner walked, which made sense; you weren't going to let him beat you.

Then Stokes made his pitch to Martinez, got his ground ball. A few feet to the left or right, and the day would have sparkled with hope and victory. But the ball got through, and the next batter, Ryan Garko, hit a three-run homer.

That was it. The rest of the loss was a formality. The crowd of nearly twenty-thousand booed, and everything--except for the faint memory of some thrilling baseball--was ruined.

Notes on the Twins Series

You have to like Rocco Baldelli's take on the lackluster effort Saturday night. His words were evidence of a team focus on accountability. Who knows what that debacle was about; perhaps after two draining games, one a crushing loss and the other a thrilling victory, the young team simply lost focus. For three other games, though, the Rays played the Twins with intensity, never looking as overmatched as they have in the Metrodome recently. Today's scrappy ninth inning against Joe Nathan showed impressive spirit.

The bullpen was to the Rays this past week as Don Imus was to the rest of the country: a irritating, complex topic that would not go away. Mark Lancaster provided a nice summary in today's Tribune. I agree with his take on Lidge versus Hermanson: if you're going to gamble on a fading closer, you may as well go with the one who can be bought, rather than traded for. Of course, Lidge is a far superior pitcher to Hermanson right now, but not worth the sacrifice when Al Reyes is getting outs. Hermanson would be Moneyball- style low-risk acquisition, like Reyes. Why not?

I enjoyed Patrick Kennedy's take on the same topic at D-Rays Bay.

Kennedy also mentions, by way of Marc Topkin, the Devil Rays' improved television ratings so far this season. We haven't yet discussed Sternberg and Matt Silverman's marketing efforts, focused as we've been on the roster. The ratings increase is evidence that some of the new ideas are taking hold. Between expanding to the Orlando market and making the Trop a more pleasant place to watch games, the team's PR face lift is another interesting topic. When Silverman and Friedman went door-to-door two winters ago, you knew they were not only committed, but different. Plans to make the Rays more economically feasible in Florida will only help them field a competitive team.

Breaking Down the Bullpen Problem

Mark Lancaster said it in the Tribune this morning: the bullpen narrative is already becoming old. You could see it on Jim Hickey’s face last night in the sixth, when Shawn Camp was in the middle of his nightmare. The new pitching coach rolled his eyes, cursed, bolted out to the mound and said something sharp. He must have been thinking: what do we have to do to hold a lead?

It would be easy to gripe about the problems, though; let’s take the opportunity to think about how a team can solve this particular issue. First, looking at Camp and Ruddy Lugo, who have been ineffective this year: can these guys develop any further to eventually become reliable? Their PECOTA projections at Baseball Prospectus seem to think they can be decent, at least (Camp, Lugo). Maddon sounded supportive but noncommittal last night (his quote in every story has two elements: one, “I’m going to keep talking to these guys,” seemed hopeful, while the other, “That’s who we’ve got, that’s what we’re going to work with,” may have betrayed some frustration.)

How do you work with this bullpen problem during a season? It seems as if Maddon and Hickey plan to continue with the current relief corps, but there is the possibility of eventually replacing them. The Durham Bulls have received three consecutive impressive starts, from Jason Hammel, J.P. Howell, and, last night, from Mitch Talbot. Seth McClung and Chad Orvella are also on the Triple-A staff. When does it become time to try out some new arms in St. Petersburg?

The story to watch here is whether Friedman and Maddon make major adjustments to the pen during the season. If they sense a need—in terms of fan interest and player buy-in—for a significantly improved record this year, they may need to tinker.

Interesting take on the bullpen situation today at Rays Index.

And now, something more positive:

Jackson did struggle with his command last night, and ended up a ball/strike ratio that was less than stellar. He also, however, pitched significantly better than his line in the box score. In addition to pumping a mid-nineties fastball and generally effective slider, Jackson seemed composed and confident. Remember, the game was tied when he left with two outs in the sixth. Had Shawn Camp been able to get an out, Jackson’s impressive outing would have been the story.

“Nice job,” Maddon said when took the ball from his starter. Jackson may not have heard him, as he began walking toward the dugout.

Maddon stopped the pitcher, looked him in the eye, and said again, “Nice job.” He wanted the praise to be heard and noted. Jackson thanked him and jogged to the bench, where he sat and smiled. He beamed for a few minutes, satisfied with the knowledge that his development was moving in the right direction. The smile, of course, had faded entirely by the time the score was 8-2.

One more thing: Jorge Cantu started at first base for Durham last night. A future power hitting corner infielder for the Rays?

Hope and Frustration Against the Blue Jays

We continued to learn about the Rays’ superstars-in-training during last weekend’s series against Toronto.

In the bottom of the second yesterday, Delmon Young roped Roy Halladay’s first pitch to left for a leadoff double. Young has been criticized for being too eager with the first pitch, and responded to that defiantly the other day within this Marc Topkin piece. His remarkable talent often allows him to compensate for the lack of selectivity, but with a career on-base percentage, including the minors, of .336, one wonders if there will be an adjustment period in the majors, and if Young will respond positively.

Elijah Dukes provided a patient contrast in the same inning. With Young on third, Dukes found himself in a 1-2 hole against Halladay. Easy, the ace must have thought, I’ll just get this rookie to chase. Doc wasted three pitches away; Dukes sat on all of them, drawing a mature walk. With an on-base percentage of .401 in Durham last season, Dukes has already shown exceptional patience for a player his age. Questions about his volatile temperament do not seem to extend to behavior at the plate.

Now for Kazmir, the third phenom in the spotlight yesterday. Mixing a diving slider and deceptive two-seamer with his standard mid-nineties fastball, Kazmir was lights-out in stretches. At one point, he set a team record by striking out six consecutive batters. He was exciting, he was focused, but he couldn’t win the game.

With two on and two out in the fifth, Reed Johnson homered, putting the Jays forever ahead and inalterably tainting Kazmir’s early dominance. Despite adding pitches, the Rays’ would-be ace still has a problem sealing games, keeping pitch counts down, avoiding deadly mistakes. He continues to develop; we continue to watch.

Overall, the Blue Jays series was rich in hope and frustration for Rays fans. The comeback on Friday night, spearheaded by Young and Upton, provided a thrilling home opener. The offense and energy showed up for every game, and Kazmir and James Shields pitched well. One wonders, though, if the bullpen will be every bit as problematic this year as it was in 2006.

Over in Yankeeland, Brian Cashman has been busy converting a talent surplus into a stockpile of young power arms. In the Randy Johnson and Gary Sheffield trades, the Yankees obtained enough pitching to ease concerns about the bullpen and rotation. Some of those guys will stick and help the Yankees in the sixth, seventh, and eighth innings. The question remains for Andrew Friedman: who do you trade in an effort to do the same?

Last season, the Rays lost a league-record sixty games which they had led at some point. Think about that number, and imagine what their record might have been with a more consistent bullpen. As a team, they are further along than many think, but that bullpen…

Some good Rays reading from this morning:

Eduardo Encina writes of the Rays' efforts to turn around last year's abysmal road performance.

Edwin Jackson makes his case to remain the fifth starter tonight in Texas, as Mark Lancaster writes. This is exactly what I was talking about above: Friedman turned Danys Baez into a young power arm in Jackson before last season. Some arms work out; others don't, but you have to stockpile them. Jackson is still a work-in-progress, and it is no coincidence that Maddon has paired him with Josh Paul for his big night. Paul was instrumental in helping to develop Kazmir, Shields and Seth McClung last year.

Thanks to Patrick Kennedy at D-Rays Bay, an excellent Rays blog, for linking us.